Betts
09-22-2008, 08:11 AM
This is an interesting analysis of when players usually "break out", and gives us an idea of what to expect from our younger players. Scroll down the page to find the "NBA Breakout Analysis":
http://mvn.com/nba-celtics/2008/09/22/as-the-celtics-age-the-upside/
After weaning through NBA’s best, I came up with 106 active players that have met the efficiency factor for one year and have demonstrated that they are here to stay (e.g., Kevin Durant or Al Horford), or have shown that they can sustain that level as a significant role player (e.g. Tayshaun Prince). I have tried to eliminate one-hit wonders, and I also did not consider old-timers Shaquille O’Neal, Grant Hill and Jason Kidd. I also threw out Jeff Foster who was an outlier last year by breaking the 14.0 efficiency threshold at the ripe age of 30, 9 years after he entered the NBA (Ruben Patterson did the same a couple of years ago, and was unceremoniously left off every one’s roster the next year!).
Although 106 players seams like a lot to consider, it averages out to be a little more than 3 players per team in the NBA. It is also nice to have a good sample size to allow the findings to have some statistical significance.
THE NBA BREAKOUT RESULTS
First of all, congratulations to the following players that “broke out” last season, in order of Efficiency per game, highest to lowest:
Andrew Bynum, Monta Ellis, Danny Granger, LaMarcus Aldridge, Rudy Gay, Jose Calderon, Al Horford, Devin Harris, Kevin Durant, Marvin Williams, Brendan Haywood, and last but not least, coming in at the wire . . . Rajon Rondo.
Gentleman, you have arrived - congratulations!
The overall results for the Breakout Season with regard to the number of years of NBA experience, including the actual breakout season, is shown in the histogram below:
From this chart, we see that players that are generally going to breakout do so within their 3rd year, if they breakout at all.
There are some delayed gratification participants that wait until their 4th or 5th year (28 of the 106). And then there are 4 late-bloomers that deserve mention. Tyson Chandler and Eddy Curry did it in their 6th years, and Al Harrington and new-entry Brendan Haywood waited until their 7th year in the NBA.
Some notable folks that broke out in their 5thyear include Jermaine O’Neil, Gerald Wallace, Ricky Davis, Corey Maggette, Nene Hilario, Chris Wilcox, Chauncey Billups, Samuel Dalembert, Marcus Camby, Steve Nash and Ben Wallace. Nice group of players to wait for, if you were patient enough, and only the Clippers (Maggette), 76er’s (Dalembert) and the Nuggets (Hilario) managed to hang on long enough to see their investment pay dividends (Maggette has since opted out of his contract and signed with the Warriors). The others were moved, in hindsight, at below their market value.
One conclusion is, as expected, that experience correlation is biased by the high school contingent who would be expected to take more time, so that an alternative viewpoint is to evaluate the breakout season by the age of the player. When does a player become “over-the-hill” with respect to being able to have a break-out season in the NBA?
The age analysis for the Breakout Season is as follows:
It appears that a normal distribution (bell curve) applies to the age of the breakout season, with a mode of 22 years old being the most likely age for player to be when he begins his breakout season. Ray Allen and ex-Celtics player Big Al Jefferson are part of the modal age, both being 22 when they “broke-out”. Pierce was a bit ahead of the curve being 21 years old when he set the world on fire during the 1998-99 season. Who were those five 19 year olds you ask? Answer: Kobe Bryant, Lebron James, Carmelo Anthony, Dwight Howard, and the new entry - Kevin Durant (by a whisker of the 14.0 efficiency criteria). Overzealous youths they were.
And who were those old folks that waited until they were over 25 years old to break-out? They were Marcus Camby, Steve Nash, Ben Wallace, Manu Ginobili, Raja Bell and Haywood. Only Camby, Nash, Wallace and Haywood make the tail-end of both the experience and age lists, making their owner wait for them as if they were fine Bordeaux wines.
Aspiring GMs want to know what is the better indicator for the breakout season – the mean age of 22.5 years or the mean NBA experience of 2.8 years? Of course it is the number of years of experience, but you cannot ignore the age factor either, lest you lose out on the likes of Al Harrington, Jermaine O’Neal, Tyson Chandler or Eddy Curry.
http://mvn.com/nba-celtics/2008/09/22/as-the-celtics-age-the-upside/
After weaning through NBA’s best, I came up with 106 active players that have met the efficiency factor for one year and have demonstrated that they are here to stay (e.g., Kevin Durant or Al Horford), or have shown that they can sustain that level as a significant role player (e.g. Tayshaun Prince). I have tried to eliminate one-hit wonders, and I also did not consider old-timers Shaquille O’Neal, Grant Hill and Jason Kidd. I also threw out Jeff Foster who was an outlier last year by breaking the 14.0 efficiency threshold at the ripe age of 30, 9 years after he entered the NBA (Ruben Patterson did the same a couple of years ago, and was unceremoniously left off every one’s roster the next year!).
Although 106 players seams like a lot to consider, it averages out to be a little more than 3 players per team in the NBA. It is also nice to have a good sample size to allow the findings to have some statistical significance.
THE NBA BREAKOUT RESULTS
First of all, congratulations to the following players that “broke out” last season, in order of Efficiency per game, highest to lowest:
Andrew Bynum, Monta Ellis, Danny Granger, LaMarcus Aldridge, Rudy Gay, Jose Calderon, Al Horford, Devin Harris, Kevin Durant, Marvin Williams, Brendan Haywood, and last but not least, coming in at the wire . . . Rajon Rondo.
Gentleman, you have arrived - congratulations!
The overall results for the Breakout Season with regard to the number of years of NBA experience, including the actual breakout season, is shown in the histogram below:
From this chart, we see that players that are generally going to breakout do so within their 3rd year, if they breakout at all.
There are some delayed gratification participants that wait until their 4th or 5th year (28 of the 106). And then there are 4 late-bloomers that deserve mention. Tyson Chandler and Eddy Curry did it in their 6th years, and Al Harrington and new-entry Brendan Haywood waited until their 7th year in the NBA.
Some notable folks that broke out in their 5thyear include Jermaine O’Neil, Gerald Wallace, Ricky Davis, Corey Maggette, Nene Hilario, Chris Wilcox, Chauncey Billups, Samuel Dalembert, Marcus Camby, Steve Nash and Ben Wallace. Nice group of players to wait for, if you were patient enough, and only the Clippers (Maggette), 76er’s (Dalembert) and the Nuggets (Hilario) managed to hang on long enough to see their investment pay dividends (Maggette has since opted out of his contract and signed with the Warriors). The others were moved, in hindsight, at below their market value.
One conclusion is, as expected, that experience correlation is biased by the high school contingent who would be expected to take more time, so that an alternative viewpoint is to evaluate the breakout season by the age of the player. When does a player become “over-the-hill” with respect to being able to have a break-out season in the NBA?
The age analysis for the Breakout Season is as follows:
It appears that a normal distribution (bell curve) applies to the age of the breakout season, with a mode of 22 years old being the most likely age for player to be when he begins his breakout season. Ray Allen and ex-Celtics player Big Al Jefferson are part of the modal age, both being 22 when they “broke-out”. Pierce was a bit ahead of the curve being 21 years old when he set the world on fire during the 1998-99 season. Who were those five 19 year olds you ask? Answer: Kobe Bryant, Lebron James, Carmelo Anthony, Dwight Howard, and the new entry - Kevin Durant (by a whisker of the 14.0 efficiency criteria). Overzealous youths they were.
And who were those old folks that waited until they were over 25 years old to break-out? They were Marcus Camby, Steve Nash, Ben Wallace, Manu Ginobili, Raja Bell and Haywood. Only Camby, Nash, Wallace and Haywood make the tail-end of both the experience and age lists, making their owner wait for them as if they were fine Bordeaux wines.
Aspiring GMs want to know what is the better indicator for the breakout season – the mean age of 22.5 years or the mean NBA experience of 2.8 years? Of course it is the number of years of experience, but you cannot ignore the age factor either, lest you lose out on the likes of Al Harrington, Jermaine O’Neal, Tyson Chandler or Eddy Curry.